El Nino Fuels Rising Heat Deaths, Experts Warn of “New Normal”
A recent study conducted by researchers from Nanyang Technological University and City University of Hong Kong, published in Nature Climate Change, explores the long-term health consequences associated with El Nino cycles.
Analyzing data spanning from 1960 to 2022 across 10 Pacific Rim nations and regions, the study determined that mortality rates decreased by an average of 2.1% once El Nino conditions fully subsided.
The findings further revealed that the influence of El Nino on death rates differs by age group, with individuals under 30 experiencing the most pronounced effects. Researchers linked this trend to higher exposure among younger populations to extreme heat and air pollution.
A comparison of major historical El Nino episodes also showed a significant increase over time in the estimated economic value tied to reductions in life expectancy. The 1982–1983 El Nino was associated with life expectancy losses valued at $2.6 trillion, while the 1997–1998 event carried a much higher estimated impact of $4.7 trillion.
According to expert commentary, El Nino on its own — in the absence of broader climate change — can raise global average temperatures by 0.1 to 0.2 degrees above typical levels.
However, when combined with the ongoing global warming trend, it can drive temperatures to record-breaking levels, especially during late summer months such as August and September.
Specialists emphasize that El Nino represents a serious public health risk. In previous extreme weather conditions linked to rising temperatures and warmer sea surfaces, such as events in Libya several years ago, approximately 13,000 people lost their lives.
Medical experts also warn that heat-related diseases are expected to become more frequent in the years ahead if warming trends continue unchecked.
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